Ladies and gentlemen
As Chairman of the Governing Board, it is my pleasure to welcome you to the news conference of the Swiss National Bank. I would also like to welcome all those who are joining us today online. After our introductory remarks, we will take questions from journalists as usual. Questions can also be asked by telephone.
Monetary policy decision
I will begin with our monetary policy decision. We have decided to leave the SNB policy rate unchanged at 1.75%. Banks’ sight deposits held at the SNB are remunerated at the SNB policy rate up to a certain threshold, and at 1.25% above this threshold. We are also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary.
Inflationary pressure has decreased slightly over the past quarter. However, uncertainty remains high. We will therefore continue to monitor the development of inflation closely. We will adjust our monetary policy if necessary to ensure inflation remains within the range consistent with price stability over the medium term.
Allow me to address the development of inflation. Inflation stood at 1.4% in November, and was thus somewhat lower than in the previous months. The slight decrease was above all attributable to lower inflation on goods and tourism services. However, inflation is likely to increase again somewhat in the coming months due to higher electricity prices and rents, as well as the rise in VAT.
Our new conditional inflation forecast is below that of September. In the short term, this is due to the recent lower-than-expected inflation. In the medium term, reduced inflationary pressure from abroad and somewhat weaker second-round effects are resulting in a downward revision. Over the entire forecast horizon, the inflation forecast is within the range of price stability (cf. chart). The forecast puts average annual inflation at 2.1% for 2023, 1.9% for 2024 and 1.6% for 2025 (cf. table). Our forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.75% over the entire forecast horizon.